Predictors of transition to schizophrenia and other long-lasting non-affective psychoses in first-episode patients with acute and transient psychotic disorders: A validation study

Background and objectives Almost half of the individuals with a first-episode of psychosis who initially meet criteria for acute and transient psychotic disorder (ATPD) will have had a diagnostic revision during their follow-up, mostly toward schizophrenia. This study aimed to determine the proportion of diagnostic transitions to schizophrenia and other long-lasting non-affective psychoses in patients with first-episode ATPD, and to examine the validity of the existing predictors for diagnostic shift in this population. Methods We designed a prospective two-year follow-up study for subjects with first-episode ATPD. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was performed to identify independent variables associated with diagnostic transition to persistent non-affective psychoses. This prediction model was built by selecting variables on the basis of clinical knowledge. Results Sixty-eight patients with a first-episode ATPD completed the study and a diagnostic revision was necessary in 30 subjects at the end of follow-up, of whom 46.7% transited to long-lasting non-affective psychotic disorders. Poor premorbid adjustment and the presence of schizophreniform symptoms at onset of psychosis were the only variables independently significantly associated with diagnostic transition to persistent non-affective psychoses. Conclusion Our findings would enable early identification of those inidividuals with ATPD at most risk for developing long-lasting non-affective psychotic disorders, and who therefore should be targeted for intensive preventive interventions. (AU)

El valor de p del test no es un ‘índice matemático’, es simplemente una frecuencia relativa / The p-value of the test is not a ‘mathematical index’, it is simply a relative frequency

Las revistas científicas más importantes en campos como medicina, biología y sociología publican reiteradamente artículos y editoriales denunciando que un gran porcentaje de médicos no entiende los conceptos básicos del análisis estadístico, lo que favorece el riesgo de cometer errores al interpretar los datos, los hace más vulnerables frente a informaciones falsas y reduce la eficacia de la investigación. Este problema se extiende a lo largo de toda su carrera profesional y se debe, en gran parte, a una enseñanza deficiente en estadística que es común en países desarrollados. En palabras de H. Halle y S. Krauss, ‘el 90% de los profesores universitarios alemanes que usan con asiduidad el valor de p de los test no entiende lo que mide ese valor’. Es importante destacar que los razonamientos básicos del análisis estadístico son similares a los que realizamos en nuestra vida cotidiana y que comprender los conceptos básicos del análisis estadístico no requiere conocimiento matemático alguno. En contra de lo que muchos investigadores creen, el valor de p del test no es un ‘índice matemático’ que nos permita concluir claramente si, por ejemplo, un fármaco es más efectivo que el placebo. El valor de p del test es simplemente un porcentaje.(AU)

Abstract. Leading scientific journals in fields such as medicine, biology and sociology repeatedly publish articles and editorials claiming that a large percentage of doctors do not understand the basics of statistical analysis, which increases the risk of errors in interpreting data, makes them more vulnerable to misinformation and reduces the effectiveness of research. This problem extends throughout their careers and is largely due to the poor training they receive in statistics – a problem that is common in developed countries. As stated by H. Halle and S. Krauss, ‘90% of German university lecturers who regularly use the p-value in tests do not understand what that value actually measures’. It is important to note that the basic reasoning of statistical analysis is similar to what we do in our daily lives and that understanding the basic concepts of statistical analysis does not require any knowledge of mathematics. Contrary to what many researchers believe, the p-value of the test is not a ‘mathematical index’ that allows us to clearly conclude whether, for example, a drug is more effective than a placebo. The p-value of the test is simply a percentage.(AU)

Comparison of the Predictive Validity of Norton and Braden Scales in Determining the Risk of Pressure Injury in Elderly Patients.

AIM: To compare the reliability and predictive validity of Norton and Braden scales in determining the risk of pressure injury in elderly patients. DESIGN: This research used a comparative design. One hundred thirty elderly patients participated in the study. METHODS: The daily pressure injury risk of participants was evaluated by a researcher using both the Norton and Braden scales in a consecutive manner. RESULTS: The mean age of patients was 75.1 ± 8.5 years, and that for those without and with pressure injury development was 75.0 ± 8.3 years and 76.1 ± 9.7 years (P < .001), respectively. The reliability coefficients of the Norton and Braden scales were .82 and .89, respectively. The sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive values of the Norton Scale were 100%, 40.7%, 20.2%, and 100%, and those of the Braden Scale were 100%, 32.7%, 18.3%, and 100%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The reliability of both scales for elderly patients was found to be high, and their ability to differentiate patients at risk was comparable. However, both scales had low specificity. Further research is needed to develop scales that have higher predictive validity for the elderly population, taking into account other risk factors that influence total scale scores.

Feasibility and Diagnostic Performance of Functional SYNTAX Score Derived From Dynamic CT Myocardial Perfusion Imaging.

BACKGROUND: Computed tomography (CT) fractional flow reserve (FFR)-derived functional SYNTAX score (FSSCT-FFR) is a valuable method for guiding treatment strategy in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease. Dynamic CT myocardial perfusion imaging (CT-MPI) demonstrates higher diagnostic accuracy than CT-FFR in identifying hemodynamically significant coronary artery disease. We aimed to evaluate the feasibility of CT-MPI-derived FSS (FSSCT-MPI) with reference to invasive FSS. METHODS: In this retrospective study, patients with multivessel coronary artery disease who underwent dynamic CT-MPI+ coronary CT angiography and invasive coronary angiography or FFR within 4 weeks were consecutively included. Invasive (FSSinvasive) and noninvasive FSS (FSSCT-MPI and FSSCT-FFR) were calculated by an online calculator, which assigned points to lesions with hemodynamic significance (defined as FFRinvasive ≤0.80, invasive coronary angiography diameter stenosis ≥90%, CT-FFR ≤0.80, and myocardial ischemia on CT-MPI). Weighted κ value and net reclassification index were calculated to determine the consistency and incremental discriminatory power of FSSCT-MPI. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was used for the comparison of FSSCT-MPI and FSSCT-FFR in detecting intermediate- to high-risk patients. RESULTS: A total of 119 patients (96 men; 64.6±10.6 years) with 305 obstructive lesions were included. The average FSSCT-MPI, FSSCT-FFR, and FSSinvasive were 15.58±13.03, 16.18±13.30, and 13.11±12.22, respectively. The agreement on risk classification based on the FSSCT-MPI tertiles was good (weighted κ, 0.808). With reference to FSSinvasive, FSSCT-MPI correctly reclassified 27 (22.7%) patients from the intermediate- to high SYNTAX score group to the low-score group (net reclassification index, 0.30; P<0.001). In patients with severe calcification, FSSCT-MPI had better diagnostic value than FSSCT-FFR in detecting intermediate- to high-risk patients when compared with FSSinvasive (area under the curve, 0.976 versus 0.884; P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Noninvasive FSS derived from CT-MPI is feasible and has strong concordance with FSSinvasive. It allows accurate categorization of FSS in patients with multivessel coronary artery disease, in particular with severe calcification.

The diagnostic yield of inferior petrosal sinus sampling in Cushing syndrome in the era of ovine CRH shortage.

PURPOSE: The ovine corticotropin-releasing hormone (oCRH) stimulation test has been routinely used in the diagnostic work-up of ACTH-dependent Cushing syndrome (CS). With oCRH currently being out-of-stock in Europe, we aimed at evaluating the diagnostic performance of inferior petrosal sinus sampling (IPSS) without oCRH stimulation. METHODS: We compared the values of 40 patients with ACTH-dependent CS and negative MRI findings in whom ACTH was measured before and after oCRH stimulation. RESULTS: The ratio of central-to-peripheral ACTH measurement (IPS:P) before the combined 3, 5, and 10 min of oCRH stimulation yielded diminished sensitivity (85% vs. 97%), alongside markedly decreased specificity (57% vs. 71%), as well as reduced positive and negative predictive values (90% vs. 94% and 44% vs. 83%), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: With the current drug shortages in Europe, ACTH measurements without oCRH stimulation in IPSS cannot be recommended. Thus, we call for desmopressin or the commercially available human CRH as a potential alternative in the confirmation of ACTH excess by IPSS in equivocal MRI findings.

Physical and Computational Modeling for Transcatheter Structural Heart Interventions.

Structural heart disease interventions rely heavily on preprocedural planning and simulation to improve procedural outcomes and predict and prevent potential procedural complications. Modeling technologies, namely 3-dimensional (3D) printing and computational modeling, are nowadays increasingly used to predict the interaction between cardiac anatomy and implantable devices. Such models play a role in patient education, operator training, procedural simulation, and appropriate device selection. However, current modeling is often limited by the replication of a single static configuration within a dynamic cardiac cycle. Recognizing that health systems may face technical and economic limitations to the creation of "in-house" 3D-printed models, structural heart teams are pivoting to the use of computational software for modeling purposes.

Safety of Direct Drug Provocation for the Evaluation of Penicillin Allergy in Low-Risk Adults.

BACKGROUND: About 10% of patients have a penicillin allergy label, but less than 5% of them are actually allergic. Unnecessary penicillin avoidance is associated with serious medical consequences. Given the growing number of these labels, it is imperative that our diagnostic strategy for penicillin allergy be as efficient as possible. The validity of traditionally used skin tests (STs) has been questioned, whereas drug provocation testing (DPT), the criterion standard, without previous ST appears very safe in most cases. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the safety of direct DPT without consideration for ST results and the validity of ST in the diagnosis of penicillin allergy. METHODS: In this prospective cohort study without a control group, we recruited patients consulting an allergist for penicillin allergy. Patients underwent ST followed by DPT regardless of ST results. Patients with anaphylaxis to penicillin within the past 5 years or a severe delayed reaction were excluded, as were those with significant cardiorespiratory comorbidity. RESULTS: None of the 1002 recruited patients had a serious reaction to DPT. Ten (1.0%) had a mild immediate reaction, of whom only 1 (0.1%) was considered likely IgE-mediated. The positive and negative predictive values of ST for an immediate reaction were 3.6% and 99.1%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: In a low-risk adult population reporting penicillin allergy, ST has very poor positive predictive value. Direct DPT without ST is safe and appears to be an ideal diagnostic strategy to remove penicillin allergy labels that could be implemented in first-line practice.

Validation of alopecia coding in US claims data among women of childbearing age.

BACKGROUND: Accurately identifying alopecia in claims data is important to study this rare medication side effect. OBJECTIVES: To develop and validate a claims-based algorithm to identify alopecia in women of childbearing age. METHODS: We linked electronic health records from a large healthcare system in Massachusetts (Mass General Brigham) with Medicaid claims data from 2016 through 2018 to identify all women aged 18 to 50 years with an ICD-10 code for alopecia, including alopecia areata, androgenic alopecia, non-scarring alopecia, or cicatricial alopecia, from a visit to the MGB system. Using eight predefined algorithms to identify alopecia in Medicaid claims data, we randomly selected 300 women for whom we reviewed their charts to validate the alopecia diagnosis. Positive predictive values (PPVs) were computed for the primary algorithm and seven algorithm variations, stratified by race. RESULTS: Out of 300 patients with at least 1 ICD-10 code for alopecia in the Medicaid claims, 286 had chart-confirmed alopecia (PPV = 95.3%). The algorithm requiring two diagnosis codes plus one prescription claim for alopecia treatment identified 55 patients (PPV = 100%). The algorithm requiring 1 diagnosis code for alopecia plus 1 procedure claim for intralesional triamcinolone injection identified 35 patients (PPV = 100%). Across all 8 algorithms tested, the PPV varied between 95.3% and 100%. The PPV for alopecia ranged from 94% to 100% in White and 96%-100% in 48 non-White women. The exact date of alopecia onset was difficult to determine in charts. CONCLUSION: At least one recorded ICD-10 code for alopecia in claims data identified alopecia in women of childbearing age with high accuracy.

Implementation of remote monitoring strategies to improve chronic heart failure management.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: The goal of this review is to describe the current evidence available for remote monitoring devices available for patients with chronic heart failure, and also detail practical clinical recommendations for implementing these tools in daily clinical practice. RECENT FINDINGS: Several devices ranging from sophisticated multiparametric algorithms in defibrillators, implantable pulmonary artery pressure sensors, and wearable devices to measure thoracic impedance can be utilized as important adjunctive tools to reduce the risk of heart failure hospitalization in patients with chronic heart failure. Pulmonary artery pressure sensors provide the most granular data regarding hemodynamic status, while alerts from wearable devices for thoracic impedance and defibrillator-based algorithms increase the likelihood of worsening clinical status while also having high negative predictive value when values are within normal range. SUMMARY: Multiple device-based monitoring strategies are available to reduce longitudinal risk in patients with chronic heart failure. Further studies are needed to best understand a practical pathway to integrate multiple signals of data for early clinical decompensation risk predictionVideo abstract: http://links.lww.com/HCO/A95.

[Predictive value of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging for adverse left ventricular remodeling after acute ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction].

OBJECTIVE: To assess the value of cardiac magnetic resonance (CMR) imaging for predicting adverse left ventricular remodeling in patients with ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI). METHODS: We retrospectively analyzed the clinical data and serial CMR (cine and LGE sequences) images of 86 STEMI patients within 1 week and 5 months after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), including 25 patients with adverse LV remodeling and 61 without adverse LV remodeling, defined as an increase of left ventricular end-systolic volume (LVESV) over 15% at the second CMR compared to the initial CMR. The CMR images were analyzed for LV volume, infarct characteristics, and global and infarct zone myocardial function. The independent predictors of adverse LV remodeling following STEMI were analyzed using univariate and multivariate Logistic regression methods. RESULTS: The initial CMR showed no significant differences in LV volume or LV ejection fraction (LVEF) between the two groups, but the infarct mass and microvascular obstructive (MVO) mass were significantly greater in adverse LV remodeling group (P < 0.05). Myocardial injury and cardiac function of the patients recovered over time in both groups. At the second CMR, the patients with adverse LV remodeling showed a significantly lower LVEF, a larger left ventricular end-systolic volume index (LVESVI) and a greater extent of infarct mass (P < 0.001) with lower global peak strains and strain rates in the radial, circumferential, and longitudinal directions (P < 0.05), infarct zone peak strains in the 3 directions, and infarct zone peak radial and circumferential strain rates (P < 0.05). The independent predictors for adverse LV remodeling following STEMI included the extent of infarct mass (AUC=0.793, 95% CI: 0.693-0.873; cut-off value: 30.67%), radial diastolic peak strain rate (AUC=0.645, 95% CI: 0.534-0.745; cut-off value: 0.58%), and RAAS inhibitor (AUC= 0.699, 95% CI: 0.590-0.793). CONCLUSION: The extent of infarct mass, peak radial diastolic strain rate, and RAAS inhibitor are independent predictors of adverse LV remodeling following STEMI.

Dynamic radiomics based on contrast-enhanced MRI for predicting microvascular invasion in hepatocellular carcinoma.

OBJECTIVE: To exploit the improved prediction performance based on dynamic contrast-enhanced (DCE) MRI by using dynamic radiomics for microvascular invasion (MVI) in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). METHODS: We retrospectively included 175 and 75 HCC patients who underwent preoperative DCE-MRI from September 2019 to August 2022 in institution 1 (development cohort) and institution 2 (validation cohort), respectively. Static radiomics features were extracted from the mask, arterial, portal venous, and equilibrium phase images and used to construct dynamic features. The static, dynamic, and dynamic-static radiomics (SR, DR, and DSR) signatures were separately constructed based on the feature selection method of LASSO and classification algorithm of logistic regression. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under the curve (AUC) were plotted to evaluate and compare the predictive performance of each signature. RESULTS: In the three radiomics signatures, the DSR signature performed the best. The AUCs of the SR, DR, and DSR signatures in the training set were 0.750, 0.751 and 0.805, respectively, while in the external validation set, the corresponding AUCs were 0.706, 0756 and 0.777. The DSR signature showed significant improvement over the SR signature in predicting MVI status (training cohort: P = 0.019; validation cohort: P = 0.044). After external validation, the AUC value of the SR signature decreased from 0.750 to 0.706, while the AUC value of the DR signature did not show a decline (AUCs: 0.756 vs. 0.751). CONCLUSIONS: The dynamic radiomics had an improved effect on the MVI prediction in HCC, compared with the static DCE MRI-based radiomics models.

The diagnostic efficiency of artificial intelligence based 2 hours Holter monitoring in premature ventricular and supraventricular contractions detection.

BACKGROUND: Electrocardiography (ECG) and 24 hours Holter monitoring (24 h-Holter) provided valuable information for premature ventricular and supraventricular contractions (PVC and PSVC). Currently, artificial intelligence (AI) based 2 hours single-lead Holter (2 h-Holter) monitoring may provide an improved strategy for PSVC/PVC diagnosis. HYPOTHESIS: AI combined with single-lead Holter monitoring improves PSVC/PVC detection. METHODS: In total, 170 patients were enrolled between August 2022 and 2023. All patients wore both devices simultaneously; then, we compared diagnostic efficiency, including the sensitivity/specificity/positive predictive-value (PPV) and negative predictive-value (NPV) in detecting PSVC/PVC by 24 h-Holter and 2 h-Holter. RESULTS: The PPV and NPV in patients underwent 2 h-Holter were 76.00%/87.50% and 96.35%/98.55, respectively, and the sensitivity and specificity were 79.17%/91.30%, and 95.65%/97.84% in PSVC/PVC detection compared with 24 h-Holter. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) for PSVC and PVC were 0.885 and 0.741, respectively (p < .0001). CONCLUSIONS: The potential advantages of the 2 h-Holter were shortened wearing period, improved convenience, and excellent consistency of diagnosis.

Application of roc-analysis to assess the quality of predicting the risk of chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence.

OBJECTIVE: Aim: To propose a new, original approach to assessing the quality of a multivariate regression model for predicting the risk of recurrence in patients with chronic rhinosinusitis based on ROC analysis with the construction of appropriate curves, estimating the area under them, as well as calculating the sensitivity, accuracy, specificity, and predictive value of a positive and negative classification results, the likelihood ratio of positive and negative patient detection results. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and Methods: 204 patients aged with a diagnosis of chronic rhinosinusitis were examined. RESULTS: Results: To build a multivariate regression model 14 probable factors of chronic rhinosinusitis occurrence were selected to determine the diagnostic value of the proposed model we calculate the sensitivity (Se), specificity (Sp), positive predictive value (PPV), negative predictive value (NPV), the likelihood ratio of a positive test (LR+), the likelihood ratio of a negative test (LR-) and prediction accuracy % of the proposed mathematical model. In order to determine the prognostic value of the risk ratio of CRS recurrence model, ROC- analysis was performed, ROC curves were obtained. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: The multivariate regression model makes it possible to predict potential complications and the possibility of disease recurrence. The construction of ROC-curves allows us to assert the excellent classification quality of chronic rhinosinusitis recurrence.

Critical Assessment of the Management of Unstable Angina in a Specialized Cardiology Emergency Room. / Avaliação Crítica do Manejo da Angina Instável em Pronto-Socorro Terciário de Cardiologia.

BACKGROUND: The management of unstable angina (UA) presents a challenge due to its subjective diagnosis and limited representation in randomized clinical trials that inform current practices. OBJECTIVES: This study aims to identify key factors associated with the indication for invasive versus non-invasive stratification in this population and to evaluate factors associated with stratification test results. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study included patients hospitalized with UA over a consecutive 20-month period. To assess factors associated with stratification strategies, patients were divided into invasive stratification (coronary angiography) and non-invasive stratification (other methods) groups. For the analysis of factors related to changes in stratification tests, patients were categorized into groups with or without obstructive coronary artery disease (CAD) or ischemia, as per the results of the requested tests. Comparisons between groups and multiple logistic regression analyses were performed, with statistical significance set at a 5% level. RESULTS: A total of 729 patients were included, with a median age of 63 years and a predominance of males (64.6%). Factors associated with invasive stratification included smoking (p = 0.001); type of chest pain (p < 0.001); "crescendo" pain (p = 0.006); TIMI score (p = 0.006); HEART score (p = 0.011). In multivariate analysis, current smokers (OR 2.23, 95% CI 1.13-4.8), former smokers (OR 2.19, 95% CI 1.39-3.53), and type A chest pain (OR 3.39, 95% CI 1.93-6.66) were independently associated. Factors associated with obstructive CAD or ischemia included length of hospital stay (p < 0.001); male gender (p = 0.032); effort-induced pain (p = 0.037); Diamond-Forrester score (p = 0.026); TIMI score (p = 0.001). In multivariate analysis, only chest pain (type B chest pain: OR 0.6, 95% CI 0.38-0.93, p = 0.026) and previous CAD (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.01-2.0, p = 0.048) were independently associated. CONCLUSION: The type of chest pain plays a crucial role not only in the diagnosis of UA but also in determining the appropriate treatment. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating pain characteristics into prognostic scores endorsed by guidelines to optimize UA management.

FUNDAMENTO: O manejo da angina instável (AI) é um desafio devido ao seu diagnóstico subjetivo e à sua escassa representação em ensaios clínicos randomizados que determinem as práticas atuais. OBJETIVOS: O objetivo deste estudo é identificar os principais fatores associados à indicação de estratificação invasiva ou não nessa população e avaliar os fatores associados às alterações nos exames de estratificação. MÉTODOS: Coorte retrospectiva de pacientes internados por AI, em um período de 20 meses consecutivos. Para avaliar os fatores associados à estratégia de estratificação, os pacientes foram divididos em estratificação invasiva (cinecoronariografia) e não invasiva (demais métodos). Para análise de fatores relacionados às alterações nos exames de estratificação, os pacientes foram divididos em grupos com ou sem doença arterial coronariana (DAC) obstrutiva ou isquemia, conforme resultados dos exames solicitados. Foram realizadas comparações entre grupos e análise de regressão logística múltipla, com significância estatística definida em um nível de 5%. RESULTADOS: 729 pacientes foram incluídos, com mediana de idade de 63 anos e predomínio do sexo masculino (64,6%). Estiveram associados à estratificação invasiva: tabagismo (p = 0,001); tipo de dor torácica (p < 0,001); dor "em crescendo" (p = 0,006); escore TIMI (p = 0,006); escore HEART (p = 0,011). Na análise multivariada, tabagistas (OR 2,23, IC 95% 1,13-4,8), ex-tabagistas (OR 2,19, IC 1,39-3,53) e dor torácica tipo A (OR 3,39, IC 95% 1,93-6,66) estiveram associados de forma independente. Estiveram associados à DAC obstrutiva ou isquemia: tempo de internação hospitalar (p < 0,001); sexo masculino (p = 0,032); dor desencadeada por esforço (p = 0,037); Diamond-Forrester (p = 0,026); escore TIMI (p = 0,001). Na análise multivariada, apenas dor torácica (dor torácica tipo B: OR 0,6, IC 95% 0,38-0,93, p = 0,026) e DAC prévia (OR 1,42, IC 95% 1,01-2,0, p = 0,048) estiveram associadas de maneira independente. CONCLUSÕES: O tipo de dor torácica desempenha um papel crucial não apenas no diagnóstico da AI, mas também na definição do tratamento adequado. Nossos resultados destacam a importância de incorporar características da dor aos escores prognósticos endossados pelas diretrizes, para otimização do manejo da AI.